Florida’s Housing Crisis: When Did It Become This Unaffordable?

We’re nearly halfway through 2025, and it’s time for a real, boots-on-the-ground update on the Florida housing market—particularly here on the Gulf Coast. With headlines painting a bleak picture nationwide, I wanted to offer a hyperlocal perspective from Sarasota and Manatee Counties. Because if you’ve heard it once, you’ve heard it a hundred times: real estate is hyperlocal.

What’s happening nationally—or even elsewhere in Florida—isn’t always what’s happening right here in our corner of the state. And lately, we’ve been leading the charge on some major shifts.

The Reality: We’re in a Market Correction

The past 18 to 24 months have brought big changes to our market. The biggest one? Inventory is climbing. We’re seeing far more homes on the market than we are qualified or motivated buyers.

Why? Because affordability is wildly off balance.

Let’s break it down:

• Home prices have skyrocketed over the past five years.

• Interest rates sit around 7%.

• Insurance costs are through the roof.

Five years ago, the average mortgage payment in Florida was under $2,000 a month. Today, it’s creeping toward $3,000—that’s nearly a 30% increase in less than five years. And for many buyers, that price jump simply isn’t sustainable.

Sarasota County: A Shift Toward a Buyer’s Market

Let’s take a closer look at Sarasota’s May 2025 stats.

• Current inventory: 7,288 active residential listings

• That’s a 28% increase from 2019 and 20% more than this time last year.

• We now have seven months of inventory, which means we’ve tipped into a buyer’s market (a balanced market is considered 3–6 months).

The good news? Inventory is starting to slowly decline, which is typical post–high season (February–March). While it’s just a small step, it’s still a positive sign.

Sales in May 2025:

• 1,116 homes sold

• That’s 22% fewer than in 2019 and 10% fewer than last year.

Average sale price:

• $564,915

• That’s still 32% higher than pre-pandemic numbers, but 14% lower than last year.

I’ve been predicting a price correction for over a year now, and I still believe we’ll see another 5–8% dip before year-end. For buyers, that’s promising. We’re finally back in the $500K–$600K average price range, a noticeable shift from the six months in 2024 when average prices topped $700K.

Manatee County: Holding Steady… But Shifting

Here’s what we’re seeing in Manatee:

• 5,415 listings, up 40% from 2019 and 18% from last year.

• May sales: 1,020 homes—almost identical to 2019 and 2024. That stability is telling: buyers are still active and buying.

Average sale price:

• $545,268

• That’s 36% above 2019 levels but 12% down from last year.

The most notable figure? The average sale-to-list price ratio is at 92%. That means sellers are accepting offers around 8% below their original asking price. In a balanced market, that number is typically closer to 3–4%, so this tells us that many homes are overpriced, and buyers are negotiating hard.

Where Do We Go From Here?

If we rewind to 2017–2019, average prices in Sarasota and Manatee were around $350K–$360K. Many of us wish we could buy at those prices again—but realistically, we won’t. The economic environment simply doesn’t support prices dropping that far. If we ever hit those numbers again, we’d likely be dealing with a broader economic crisis beyond just housing.

So, while today’s market may feel unaffordable, it’s still full of opportunity—especially if you’ve been waiting for prices to come down. The truth is, no one can time the market perfectly. I've worked with countless buyers who say, “I wish I bought five years ago.” Well, we might be looking at one of those windows again—this could be as low as it gets for the next decade.

If you’re relocating, expanding your family, downsizing, or just ready for a new chapter, this might still be the right time to buy. You don’t have to wait for a ‘perfect market’—you just need the right timing for you.

Whether you're a buyer looking for value, or a seller needing to position your home smartly in a shifting market, I’m here to help. Let’s talk about neighborhoods that are holding their value, pricing strategies, or which homes are currently under or overpriced.

I'm Lisa McBride with Sarasota Neighborhood Experts—your go-to real estate resource here on Florida's Gulf Coast. Feel free to reach out anytime.