Is the Sarasota Housing Market Heading For a Crash?

Debunking Crash Myths and Analyzing Price Trends

Welcome to my YouTube channel! I’m Lisa McBride, a real estate expert specializing in the Sarasota and Manatee counties. In this video, we’ll discuss whether we’re in the middle of a crash or on the brink of one. But before we begin, please hit the subscribe button and the bell icon to stay updated on my future videos. Let’s dive into the current state of the local housing market.

Dispelling Crash Myths:

Despite all the headlines and fear-mongering, I firmly believe that we’re not in the middle of a crash. The constant use of the crash narrative by so-called experts sensationalizes the market and creates unnecessary uncertainty. Having personally worked through the Great Recession, I can confidently say that the situation today is vastly different.

Key Statistics to Monitor

Inventory Levels:

One crucial indicator of market stability is inventory levels. Currently, we have approximately 5,500 homes on the market in Sarasota and Manatee counties. While this figure represents a significant increase of 166% from last year, it’s important to note that it’s still relatively low. Comparatively, during the worst market in 2011, we had around 14,000 homes available. In the stable market years of 2016-2020, the average number of homes on the market was around 7,500.

Seasonal Trends and New Construction:

The time of the year also influences inventory levels. Typically, we see the highest number of homes on the market between February and March. This year, we observed a similar trend, with a slight decrease in inventory during April. It’s worth mentioning that our area has limited inventory when it comes to new construction. Builders are more cautious now, unlike during the Great Recession when they had an excess of inventory.

Price Trends:

Now, let’s address the question of whether prices are rising or dropping. The short answer is that prices are still rising overall, although it varies across different areas. In April, the average sales price was $614,000, which represents a minor 2% decrease from the previous year. This figure is currently the highest average sale price for 2023. Moving forward, I anticipate the market to remain stable with an average sale price ranging from $610,000 to $620,000.

Neighborhoods to Watch:

Certain neighborhoods continue to experience steady price growth. Downtown condo buildings along the Sarasota Bayfront are in high demand, with luxury units priced close to or exceeding a million dollars. Even new buildings under construction start at $2 million or higher. Other neighborhoods retaining high resale values include Palmer Ranch, West of Trail, Rosemary District, and Gillespie Park.

On the other hand, there are neighborhoods where homes sit on the market longer or undergo significant price drops. Surprisingly, some homes in the Longboat Key area, particularly those needing updates or lacking a pool, have experienced a decline in value compared to a year ago. Additionally, well-established neighborhoods like Summerfield and Central Park in Lakewood Ranch have seen a slight decrease in value due to their limited amenities, prompting residents to explore newer neighborhoods with state-of-the-art resort amenities, larger pools, and recreational facilities.

To summarize, we are not currently in the midst of a real estate crash in Sarasota and Manatee counties. The market is stable, with a growing inventory that remains considerably lower than during the worst market conditions in the past. Prices, overall, continue to rise, though fluctuations can be observed in different neighborhoods. It’s crucial to monitor the market closely, as future trends may impact the overall stability.

For more detailed information on neighborhood pricing and the latest local updates, make sure to watch my video on Sarasota’s Best & Worst Neighborhoods. Don’t hesitate to reach out to my team at Sarasota Neighborhood Experts for any assistance or inquiries. Thank you for watching, and until next time, take care!