THE REAL ESTATE MARKET SHIFT — REAL ESTATE 2026 PREDICTIONS

If you’ve been following real estate news recently, you’ve likely seen articles predicting a major shift ahead.

Some say 2026 will be busier. Others say appreciation is returning. Many buyers and sellers in Florida are now asking, “Is this actually happening?” As we close out 2025, the early signals suggest that a meaningful change is indeed underway.

Florida’s Wild Price Cycle

The last few years have been a roller coaster for Florida homeowners. During the pandemic, values soared by an incredible 50 to 70 percent. Once the market cooled, it was inevitable that prices would correct. Some areas dropped by around 10 to 15 percent, while neighborhoods that surged the most settled closer to a 25 percent overall gain. At the lowest point, a few homeowners even experienced declines of up to 30 percent from their pandemic peaks. These corrections were expected, but they left many wondering when stability would return.

The First Signs of a Shift

Over the past six weeks, something noticeable has changed. Inquiries have increased across every channel — calls, website leads, showing requests, and listing appointments. This isn’t just a personal trend; agents throughout Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, Bradenton, Wellen Park, and the coastal areas are seeing the same uptick. Lakewood Ranch even reported its strongest September sales since 2020, which caught everyone by surprise. This rise in activity suggests buyers and sellers who have been on the sidelines are finally stepping back in.

Builders Are Quietly Adjusting

One of the biggest clues of a shifting market comes from the builders. Throughout 2024 and much of 2025, they worked aggressively to capture buyers by offering reduced prices, rate buy-downs, pools, golf carts, and major design incentives. Those generous offers are fading. Builders don’t scale back incentives unless demand is returning, and their recent behavior is a strong indicator that the market is strengthening in the background.

Subtle Movements Beneath the Surface

Inventory has dipped for the first time in a while, suggesting supply is tightening. Homes are spending fewer days on the market, and the average sale price recently ticked upward. These aren’t dramatic swings, but together they form a pattern of gradual momentum. These are the kinds of early shifts people often overlook until much later, when it becomes clear the market was changing all along.

What to Expect in 2026

Looking ahead, there is good reason to expect a more active year. 2024 and 2025 marked the lowest home-sale volumes in nearly 20 years, leaving significant pent-up demand. Many buyers paused their plans due to affordability challenges, but life events didn’t pause with them. Marriages, relocations, new jobs, and growing families are now pushing people back into the market. I expect more homes to sell in 2026 than in 2025 because of these delayed moves.

Where Home Prices Are Headed

When it comes to values, I expect a relatively flat first half of 2026. Major appreciation isn’t likely early in the year, but I do anticipate tightening inventory and rising demand by the second and third quarters. If trends continue, prices will begin climbing again by late 2026. By this time next year, we may no longer be talking about declining prices at all — the window of softer pricing may close as the market strengthens.

Final Thoughts

The Florida market isn’t shifting overnight, and we aren’t heading into a rapid boom, but the early signals are undeniable. Quiet changes are stacking up, and they point toward a more active and competitive market ahead.

If you’re watching Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, Bradenton, Wellen Park, or the coastal communities and want clarity on what these changes mean for your plans, I’m always here to help. And as always, whether buying or selling, working with an expert who understands the market day by day makes all the difference.