Cracking the Code: Will Florida Home Prices Drop in 2023?

Will Florida Home Prices Drop in 2023? Exploring the Factors

If you’re considering buying a home in 2023, you’re likely wondering about the current real estate market in Florida. As a Sarasota realtor, I understand your concerns and want to address some common questions that many of my clients, who are mainly 50+ home buyers and sellers, have been asking. Let’s delve into the factors affecting home prices and inventory in today’s market.

Why Isn’t There More Inventory?

Housing inventory is a hot topic right now. Many are curious why there seems to be a lack of available homes. The truth is, nationwide housing inventory has decreased by a significant 40% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. While the numbers might be higher than they were a year or two ago, we are far from a balanced market.

Factors Driving Low Inventory

1. Rise in Investment Properties

Investors, including corporate giants and collaborations, have been actively purchasing homes to convert them into rentals. A staggering 24% of single-family homes are currently owned by investors. Airbnb properties have also entered the scene, impacting the availability of homes for first-time and second-time buyers. This influx of investors has made it challenging for other potential buyers to secure properties.

2. Builder Inventory Shortage

The shortage of builder inventory isn’t a recent issue. It traces back to the aftermath of the Great Recession when many builders went out of business and supply chains were disrupted. While there has been progress, factors like labor shortages, supply chain issues, and permitting delays have hindered the production of new homes.

3. Low-Interest Rates and Reluctance to Move

Many homeowners are sitting on historically low-interest rates of around 3%, making it difficult for them to justify moving to a new home with potentially higher rates. This reluctance to give up favorable rates is limiting the number of homes available for sale.

4. Millennial Home Buyers

Millennials, comprising a significant portion of potential home buyers, face challenges in entering the market due to affordability issues. While they desire homeownership, the rising costs of goods and services have made it harder for them to save for down payments and cover monthly expenses.

What’s Ahead for the Florida Market?

As we analyze these factors, it becomes clear that a sudden drop in home prices might not be imminent. The combination of investment property competition, builder inventory challenges, interest rate considerations, and the influx of millennial buyers suggests that the market dynamics could persist for a couple more years.

Your Insights Matter

I’m keen to hear your thoughts on these market dynamics. How do you view the impact of investor-owned properties? Do you see potential solutions to the builder inventory shortage? If you’re a homeowner with a low-interest rate, at what point would you consider making a move?


While predictions are never guaranteed, understanding the factors influencing the market can help you make informed decisions. If you’re aiming to buy or sell in Florida, the complexities of the current real estate landscape require a thoughtful approach. Reach out to me if you have any questions or need assistance – your journey in the Florida housing market is important to me. Keep an eye on our social media platforms for more insights and updates as we navigate these interesting times together

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